Niner Chatter

Friday, November 29, 2013

5 Burning Questions For Week 13

Coming off a nice win in Washington the 49ers face another must win Sunday as the St Louis Rams make their final visit to Candlestick Park. A lot has changed for both teams since the 49ers 35-11 week 4 victory in St Louis. What looked like a potential walk over at the beginning of November now looks like a much more difficult task.

Here are 5 burning questions to which the answers will be key to the outcome of the game.

1) What impact will Michael Crabtree have? - Crabtree is set to make his 2013 debut, only 7 months removed from tearing his Achilles tendon. It is likely that his role will be more limited than Mario Manningham's was when he returned from his knee injury against Carolina and played 45 of 57 snaps.

I would expect Crabtree to take over the snaps that last week went to Jon Baldwin and Kassim Osgood. That would put his percentage of snaps in the range of 30-40%. However they use him, it will be good to see #15 running around on the field again.

2) Can the 49ers get the run game going? - The 49ers run game has been almost entirely shut down over the last 2 weeks, having been held to only 2.7 yards per carry. As I mentioned in my post earlier this week there are a number of ways to explain the low output, but that doesn't change the fact that the 49ers have to get it straightened out.

The Rams run defense has been very solid over the last 4 weeks allowing only 3.8 yards per carry, and those numbers are inflated a bit by a the 198 yards they gave up against Tennessee on a short week. Taking that performance out they have given up only 2.6 yards per carry in 3 of their last 4.

3) Can the 49ers defense contain Zac Stacy and Tavon Austin? - When the 49ers last saw St Louis the Rams running game was struggling to find it's footing, averaging only 3.2 yards per carry in the first three games of the season. In that first matchup the 49ers made it even worse by holding the Rams to only 18 yards on 19 carries.

Following that week 4 game, the Rams made a change at running back and going with rookie Zac Stacy. That change has made a world of difference for their running game, and over the last 7 weeks the Rams have averaged 4.9 yards per carry.

Another rookie has been making a big impression of late for the Rams. Tavon Austin has begun making the type of big plays that many envisioned when he was selected in the first round. Over the last 2 games Austin has made only 4 catches, but 3 of them have been for over 30 yards.

4) Can the 49ers offense repeat? - The 49ers offense finally made some plays last week in their win over the Redskins. That's the good news.

The bad new is that they were able to manage only 304 yards of total offense and threw for 228 yards against a defense that had given up and average of 391 yards of total offense and 293 yards threw the air over the previous four weeks.

The 49ers pass offense also benefited greatly by focusing it's attention on throwing at Josh Wilson. Wilson came into the game as Washington's worst CB, and the 49ers went after him with 11 of their 24 targets and completed 10 of those for 149 yards and 1 touchdown.

In looking at the matchups against the Rams the defensive back to pick on should be second year player Janoris Jenkins. Jenkins comes into the game having given up a passer rating of 119.8 this season

5) Can the offensive line hold up in pass protection? - The Rams have one of the best defensive fronts in the NFL led by Robert Quinn. So far this season Quinn has managed to rack up 13 sacks and 67 total QB pressures according to ProFootballFocus. On the other end of the line is Chris Long who has 8 sacks of his own to go along with 43 QB pressures. Both rank in the top 10 in the league in pass rush productivity.

Fortunately for the 49ers left tackle Joe Staley has been one of the best in the business this season, and finished with a 1.6 grade in the first meeting earlier this season. The concern will be on the other side of the line where Anthony Davis has struggled in protection in recent weeks.

Look for the 49ers to move Kaepernick around in the pocket a bit more than usual this week to help slow down the pass rush. In the first meeting they moved Kaepernick on 7 of his 27 drops.

Prediction Time:

49ers 23 Rams 17

Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Is Frank Gore Wearing Down?

The Bad

1st Quarter (13:59) 1st & 10 SF 31

This is the 49ers first play of the game. They are in 21 personnel and are running an ISO to their right side. This means they are isolating the FB (Bruce Miller) on the inside linebacker (#56). The interior front does a good job of getting into their blocks, but as Miller gets into the hole the safety (#37) has also jumped in forcing Miller to choose which to block. Gore will cut off of Miller's block, but unfortunately Miller whiffs on both the LB and S making it easy for the defense to stop the play for only a 2 yard gain.

1st Quarter (6:13) 1st & 10 SF 38

The 49ers are in 21 personnel and are running a stretch play with zone blocking to their right side. Left guard Adam Snyder is supposed to pull around to the right and lead through the hole. As you can see, Washington's left inside linebacker (#59) has lined up in the C/G gap and will jump into the hole at the snap and Snyder cannot cut him off. While the play is blocked well on the playside, #59 is able to chase the play down and stop Gore for only a 2 yard gain.

3rd Quarter (7:01) 2nd & 3 WAS 33

The 49ers are in 12 personnel and are running a stretch play to their left. Vernon Davis misses his block on the outside linebacker (#98) allowing the play to be blown up in the backfield. Gore tries to cut back, but Anthony Davis has missed his block on the defensive tackle (#92) on the back side. The two converge to drop Gore for a loss of 1.

The Good

1st Quarter (12:49) 1st & 10 SF 44

The 49ers are in 21 personnel and are running a power to their right. Adam Snyder will pull down the line to kick out the outside linebacker (#91), and Bruce Miller will lead Gore into the hole. While they don't get a tremendous push on this play everyone blocks their man and Gore does what he still does as good as any back in the league running through a tiny seam for a gain of 5.

2nd Quarter (14:26) 1st & 10 WAS 18

The 49ers are in 12 personnel and are running the same stretch play detailed above in the second play out of a slightly different look (formation) and to the left intstead of the right. Due to the formation adjustment the linebackers stay back which, along with the entire front getting a hat on hat allows the right guard Alex Boone to be able to get around and lead Gore up into the hole forcing the free safety to come up and make the play after a gain of 5.

Tuesday, November 26, 2013

49ers Activate Michael Crabtree

The 49ers have activated Michael Crabtree to their 53 man roster. To make room for Crabtree they released third string quarterback McLoed Bethel-Thompson.

Jim Harbaugh has stated that he expects Crabtree to play on Sunday when the 49ers take on the St Louis Rams at Candlestick Park.

The return of Crabtree could be a big boost for Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers passing game. In the 10 games after Kaepernick took over Crabtree had 61 catches for 880 yards and 8 touchdown passes, and Kaepernick had a rating of 130.4 on passes targeted in his direction.

What type of contribution do you think Crabtree will be able to make?

5 Burning Questions Answered

The 49ers did what they needed to do on Monday night, defeating Washington 27-6. The defense did what it has done for the last 8 weeks by shutting down the Washington offense, limiting them to 190 total yards. On the offensive side of the ball they were able to make some big plays through the passing game and get things working a bit. With this win the 49ers took over the lead for most wins in the history of Monday Night Football.

Let's take a look at the answers to the 5 burning questions that I asked yesterday.

1) Can the 49ers get the running game going again? - Yes

"Over the last 2 weeks, both losses, the 49ers have run the ball on 37% of its snaps. If the 49ers are going to win they must get that number to a minimum of 45-50%."

The 49ers got back to their balanced attack last night. They ran 59 offensive plays, 31 passes (53%) and 28 runs (47%).

2) Can the 49ers defense contain Alfred Morris? - Yes

"Over the last three games Morris has averaged 24.3 carries and 117.67 yards per game. If he is able to reach those numbers tonight it will be tough sledding for the 49ers."

The 49ers run defense held Morris to 52 yards on 14 carries. His 3.7 yards per carry average is his lowest of any game this season.

3) Can Colin Kaepernick rekindle his Monday Night Magic? - Yes

"It has been exactly a year and a week to the day since Kaepernick made his first career start on Monday Night Football against the Chicago Bears. On that night Kaepernick completed 16 of 23 passes for 243 yards and 2 touchdowns. So far in 2013 Kaepernick has bettered those numbers only two times."

Kaepernick finished the night 15-24 for 235 yards and 3 touchdowns in a performance that was very similar to the one he had against the Bears. He was able to hit some big shots down the field to Vernon Davis, Anquan Boldin and Vance McDonald and put together his third best passing game of the season.

4) What effect will the Tarell Brown injury have on the 49ers secondary? - None on this night.

The 49ers secondary played very well by combining with a solid pass rush to limit Washington to only 127 yards passing and no passes longer than 18 yards.

5) Turn back the clock to 1988? - It's a start...

"The 1988 49ers entered their week 12 matchup with a 6-5 record coming off back to back losses, the second being a dismal offensive effort in which they could only muster 3 points and 219 yards. It was the second time that season in which the offense had looked over matched, including a 10-9 loss a few weeks earlier to the Chicago Bears.

For week 12 the 49ers hosted the defending Super Bowl Champion Washington Redskins. The 49ers blitzed Washington, taking a 23-7 lead into the half on the strength of a Montana touchdown pass to Brent Jones, a Tom Rathman TD run, and John Taylor's incredible punt return for a touchdown. That win was the catalyst to a 4 game win streak that set the 49ers up for a post season run that would include avenging that loss to Chicago and culminate in the teams third Super Bowl title."

Prediction Time:

49ers 19 Washington 13

Monday, November 25, 2013

5 Burning Questions For Week 12

The 49ers take on Washington later tonight in a must win game to stay in the 6th seed for the NFC playoffs. Let's jump right into my 5 burning questions for tonight's game.

1) Can the 49ers get the running game going again? - During their 5 game winning streak the 49ers offense ran the ball on 65% of its snaps. Over the last 2 weeks, both losses, the 49ers have run the ball on 37% of its snaps. If the 49ers are going to win they must get that number to a minimum of 45-50%.

2) Can the 49ers defense contain Alfred Morris? - Over the last three games Morris has averaged 24.3 carries and 117.67 yards per game. If he is able to reach those numbers tonight it will be tough sledding for the 49ers.

3) Can Colin Kaepernick rekindle his Monday Night Magic? - It has been exactly a year and a week to the day since Kaepernick made his first career start on Monday Night Football against the Chicago Bears. On that night Kaepernick completed 16 of 23 passes for 243 yards and 2 touchdowns. So far in 2013 Kaepernick has bettered those numbers only two times.

4) What effect will the Tarell Brown injury have on the 49ers secondary? - At first glimpse the injury to Brown and subsequent promotion of Tramaine Brock into his place doesn't seem like a big deal, however it will have a ripple effect throughout the secondary.

Brown and Carlos Rogers had been the corners in the 49ers base defense with Brock entering and Rogers sliding to the slot in Nickle/Dime situations. It will be interesting to see how the 49ers handle this tonight, my guess is we will see Brock and Eric Wright on the outside with Rogers still manning the slot.

5) Turn back the clock to 1988? - The 1988 49ers entered their week 12 matchup with a 6-5 record coming off back to back losses, the second being a dismal offensive effort in which they could only muster 3 points and 219 yards. It was the second time that season in which the offense had looked overmatched, including a 10-9 loss a few weeks earlier to the Chicago Bears.

For week 12 the 49ers hosted the defending Super Bowl Champion Washington Redskins. The 49ers blitzed Washington, taking a 23-7 lead into the half on the strength of a Montana touchdown pass to Brent Jones, a Tom Rathman TD run, and John Taylor's incredible punt return for a touchdown. That win was the catalyst to a 4 game win streak that set the 49ers up for a post season run that would include avenging that loss to Chicago and culminate in the teams third Super Bowl title.

Prediction Time:

49ers 19 Washington 13

Sunday, November 24, 2013

Film Study - 49ers Offense vs Redskins Defense

As we get ready to watch the 49ers take on Washington on Monday night I thought it would be a good time to take a look at some areas the 49ers offense might be able to take advantage of the Washington defense. To do this I went back and looked at the film from the 2011 meeting between the two teams which ended with a 49ers victory. Let's start by looking at the passing game first.

1st & 10 Washington 30. 49ers are in their now infamous 22 personnel package. Washington has countered by bringing the safety down to the 2 TE side (he looks like the 3rd linebacker closest to the hashes at the top). The 49ers go play action with Bruce Miller running a wheel route down the left sideline and the wide receiver pushing his route to the middle to create space outside. As you can see the play works to perfection and the 49ers score their only touchdown of the game to go up 13-0.

Here is a play from Washington's game last week against the Eagles. Philadelphia is in 12 personnel with the two TE's at the top of the screen. Notice the safety has come down into the box just like he did in the play above. The Eagles attack it the same way, having the TE's run inside routes to wall off the inside defenders and spring the running back on a wheel route. End result is a 49 yard completion.

Here is a 3rd down play early in the 4th quarter. The 49ers are in 11 personnel, and it is a simple high low read for Smith against Washington's Cover 2 Man Under defense. Michael Crabtree is going to carry his man up the seam, opening up the spacing for Vernon Davis who is running a deep curl route down the middle with the LB in coverage. End result is a 21 yard completion and a first down.

Now let's take a look at some opportunities in the running game.

2nd Quarter, 49ers are in 12 personnel, and as we saw above Washington has rolled the safety (#37) down into the box on the 2 TE side. Despite quick penetration by the OLB #91 Gore is able to stay tight to the blocks and make the safety miss and is off to the races for a 27 yard gain.

49ers are in 22 personnel, and again Washington has rolled the safety down to the 2 TE side. The 49ers run an ISO play, isolating Miller on the middle linebacker #59. Good blocking up front allows Gore to get to the second level for a 6 yard gain. The only 2 guys that they could not block, the corner and the deep safety end up making the tackle.

49ers are in 21 personnel, and Washington has loaded the box. Again they have brought the safety down to the TE side on the bottom of the formation (with Miller also on that side it is like the 2 TE looks we saw above in 12 and 22). The 49ers are running their power to the left. Gore again gets to the second level but is tackled for only a 4 yard gain. The only thing keeping this from being a bigger gain is Adam Snyder not being able to get upfield to his block on the linebacker #58 who makes the tackle. You can see this in the 3rd picture of this sequence.

As you can see, and this should come as no surprise, the 49ers will be faced with a lot of 8 man fronts on Monday night. This is nothing new for the 49ers as they face that each and every week. They are going to have the opportunity to hit some shots in both the pass and run game. If they can make those plays count they should be able to come away with a win.